Bonds RouteMap: Market Profiles

A sample report on a government bond market

 

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ETF specialising in Demoland listed at bottom of market profiles

 

Countries & Regions

 

 

 

DEMOLAND
See Notes at Right of Page       Month End: mmm yyyy
Example of a Bonds Profile
 
Forecasts Summary Opinions History Structure Funds
           
Earnings Forecasts Since 1986 2008 a 2009 a 2010 e 2011 e
Index (31/12/1994=100)   186.9 227.7 270.8 122.0
Change (%) 10% 10% 22% 19% -55%
Real Change (%) 7% 10% 20% 15% -56%
Relative Change (%) 6% -12% 20% 7% -42%
Bond Yield (%) 3.9 1.6 0.7 0.9 1.4
Real Bond Yield (%) 1.7 1.3 1.4 1.0 0.2
Currency / US$ -1% 1% 0% -1%  
Summary Traditionally Demoland deserved its reputation as a safe haven for flight capital. Banking secrecy attracted so much capital imports that the exchange rate was even stronger than the US Dollar, inflation was even lower and the government could issue bonds at one of the lowest yields in the world. While the outlook for the bond market is benefitting from currency movements as the exchange rate is being dragged upwards, these very low yields restrain the potential for long term bonds.
 
Investment Opinions   Local Dollar Global  
    Investors Investors Investors  
  Recommended Action Add Add Buy  
           
Trend Strategies Forecast Revisions Sell Sell Sell  
  Liquidity Trends Sell Sell Sell  
  Chart Analysis Sell Sell Buy  
  Seasonal Patterns Buy Buy Buy  
           
Investor Sentiment Opinion (12 Months) Sell Sell Reduce  
           
Valuation Ratios Real Bond Yield (%) Sell Sell Hold  
  PE Ratio / Interest Rate Sell Sell Hold  
  Interest Rate / Bond Yield Sell Sell Trim  
           
Key Historical Events March-09 TARP2, Quantitative Easing  
  September-08 US Banking Crisis    
  July-08 Oil Price peaks at $147 +14 fold in 10 years  
  March-08 Rightwing coalition wins general election  
  May-07 Crisis in US sub-prime mortgage market
           
Political History For investors the single most important political event was the general election of April 1983, which ended six years of Liberal rule and began 13 years of Labour rule, mainly with Hawke as PM. This government initially brought in a Prices and Incomes rather than
  adopting the deregulation policies, becoming popular in Anglo-Saxon markets.
Growth & Inflation There was a recession in 1974/75 due to the oil crises and global economic downturn, but since then Demoland has managed to grow through the world's and most recently the region's problems. Inflation peaked at 21% in 1974.
Bond Market History Early action to combat inflation, meant that the nadir for domestic bonds was reached in 1974, one inflationary cycle earlier than the rest of the world. Coupled with currency appreciation, this country's government bonds were the world's star performers till 1988.
  Thereafter they underperformed as the rest of the world caught up. Nevertheless local investors also shared equally in the global bull market since 1992.
Economic Structure  This country has the highest proportion of industrial output generated by the specialty chemicals and pharmaceuticals. At 9%, this is 5% more than average for industrialised countries. Demoland has one of the highest standards of living in the world.
  Economic Statistics Demoland World Period Source
  Population Growth (%) 1.0% 0.5% 2000-2005 UN
  GDP Growth (%) 6.2% 2.3% 1980-2006 UN
  Rate of Inflation (%) 2.8% 3.4% 1980-2006 UN
  GDP per Head (US$) $59,700 $34,600 2005 UN
  Agriculture / GDP (%) 3% 1% 2006 CIA
  Industry / GDP (%) 45% 24% 2006 CIA
  Services / GDP (%) 52% 74% 2006 CIA
           
Political System Demoland has a parliamentary system of government, in which voting is by proportional representation, leading to a preference for coalition government. Referendums play an important part in its politics.
President Election: N/A Govt. System: Parliamentary Orientation: Rightwing
Parliament Election: Mar/2015 Election Cycle: 4 Years Administration: Coalition
           
Funds Available Sponsor Symbol Listing Type Liquidity
           
Sovereign Bond Fund iShares AAA NYSE Index ***
           
Copyright © 2010: Investors RouteMap Ltd., an Appointed Representative of Integral Asset Management Ltd, which is authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority to carry out investment business in the United Kingdom. Please read Financial Health Warning and Licence Agreement. UK laws apply exclusively. Principal sources: Consensus Economics, CFTC, FIBV, Global Financial Data, national governments and stock exchanges. Information and opinions are based on sources believed to be reliable and accurate. However the company does not guarantee this to be the case, and does not accept liability for any loss arising. These tables are for information only and do not constitute a solicitation to deal in any securities. Opinions are liable to change. Past performance is no guarantee of future success.

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