|
DEMO SECTOR |
| See Notes at
Right of Page |
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Month End: |
mmm yyyy |
|
Example of a Styles Profile |
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|
Forecasts |
Summary |
Opinions |
History |
Structure |
Funds |
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| Earnings
Forecasts |
Since 1986 |
2008 a |
2009 a |
2010 e |
2011 e |
| EPS
(1995=100) |
|
186.9 |
227.7 |
270.8 |
122.0 |
| EPS Change
(%) |
10% |
10% |
22% |
19% |
-55% |
| Real EPS
Change (%) |
7% |
10% |
20% |
15% |
-56% |
| Relative EPS
Change (%) |
6% |
-12% |
20% |
7% |
-42% |
| PE Ratio |
29.1 |
14.3 |
15.5 |
7.0 |
15.5 |
| Relative PE
Ratio |
115% |
81% |
91% |
89% |
150% |
| Character |
This sector is more sensitive to changes in the economy than blue
chips. This is a result of greater financial and operational
leverage as well as specifically higher exposure to industrial
sectors, such as building and engineering, in many regions.
Hence chamges in industrial production are the key indicator for
this Style. Over the past quarter century there have been seven
periods of accelerating output growth.
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|
Prospects |
Not only cyclical but also secular factors are now in favour of this
sector. Balanced fund managers generally failed to use their
flexibility to switch between asset classes during the biggest
divergence between stock and bond markets in decades.
As a result of it, pension plan sponsors are splitting up their
funds between a variety of specialist managers, including this
sector, so this investing style is benefiting from a positive flow
of funds. |
| Investment
Opinions |
|
Local |
Dollar |
Global |
Region |
| |
|
Investors |
Investors |
Investors |
Investors |
| |
Recommended Action |
Add |
Add |
Buy |
Trim |
| |
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| Trend
Strategies |
Forecast Revisions |
Sell |
Sell |
Sell |
Sell |
| |
Liquidity Trends |
Sell |
Sell |
Sell |
Sell |
| |
Chart Analysis |
Sell |
Sell |
Buy |
Sell |
| |
Seasonal Patterns |
Buy |
Buy |
Buy |
Sell |
| |
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| Investor
Sentiment |
Opinion (12 Months) |
Hold |
Hold |
Trim |
Add |
| |
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| Valuation
Ratios |
PE Ratio / Bond Yield |
Buy |
Buy |
Buy |
Hold |
| |
PE Ratio / Interest Rate |
Buy |
Buy |
Hold |
Add |
| |
Replacement Cost |
Buy |
Buy |
Hold |
Add |
| |
Real Earnings Yield |
Buy |
Buy |
Buy |
Hold |
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| Key
Historical Events |
October-06 |
$24 Bill.
Stock market stabilisation fund |
|
| |
September-08 |
US
Banking Crisis |
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|
| |
July-08 |
Foreign
investment curbs eased |
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| |
March-08 |
Rightwing
coalition wins general election |
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| |
November-07 |
Demoland
ETF listing |
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| History |
This sector has been a steady long term performer, except in Japan
where the collapse in the market since 1990 has held it back. While
cyclical movements can be largely related to changes in industrial
production there have been distinct long term changes |
| |
They outperformed from the depth of the Oil crisis of 1973 to the
peak of the Japanese boom in 1990, then underperformed till 1998,
since when the disproportionate weighting of growth shares generated
renewed outperformance. |
| Structure |
The representative indices have all been chosen for
comparability - broad coverage, capitalisation-weighted and similar
methods of calculation. Where there is insufficient back history,
comparable data from other sources has been retrofitted by chaining.
These indices are chosen to represent the performance of all of this
sector, not just its dominant sub-sector. |
| Key
Indicators |
Local Investors:
Industrial Production (Current Prices)
Dollar Investors: Industrial
Production in Current US$ Prices
Regional Investors: Industrial Production (Change %)
Global Investors: Real Effective
Exchange Rate |
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|
Region |
Component Index |
Volatility |
Correlation |
Weight |
|
| United States |
S&P |
5.3% |
95% |
40.0% |
|
| Japan / Asia |
Tokyo SE |
4.4% |
92% |
7.5% |
|
| United
Kingdom |
FTSE |
6.1% |
87% |
6.5% |
|
| Euro-Zone |
Euro-STOXX |
6.2% |
81% |
12.1% |
|
| Europe |
STOXX |
6.1% |
85% |
23.3% |
|
| World |
Investors RouteMap |
5.8% |
100% |
100.0% |
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| Political
System |
Demoland has governed under a democratic system since 1975, when
life membership of the Upper Chamber was abolished. The President is
elected by the Parliament every four years. |
| Funds
Available |
Sponsor |
Symbol |
Listing |
Type |
Liquidity |
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Sector Fund |
iShares |
VAL |
NYSE |
Index |
*** |
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|
Copyright © 2010: Investors RouteMap Ltd.,
an Appointed Representative of Integral Asset Management Ltd, which
is authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority to
carry out investment business in the United Kingdom. Please read
Financial Health Warning and Licence Agreement. UK laws apply
exclusively. Principal sources: Consensus Economics, CFTC, FIBV,
Global Financial Data, national governments and stock exchanges.
Information and opinions are based on sources believed to be
reliable and accurate. However the company does not guarantee this
to be the case, and does not accept liability for any loss arising.
These tables are for information only and do not constitute a
solicitation to deal in any securities. Opinions are liable to
change. Past performance is no guarantee of future success. |
