Forex RouteMap: Summary Tables

Ranking tables of our Best Guesses for investing in 27 developed and emerging market currencies

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Summary Tables

 

Forex RouteMap

  • Performance: Two tables of Total US$ Returns recorded for the last calendar month and year to date in foreign currency, bond and stock markets - Three columns showing percentage changes respectively for 3-Month T-Bills, 10-Year Government Bonds and Stock Market indices all converted into US$, sorted in descending order by best stock market 
  • Recent Significant Events: One table of major news headlines for every currency in every month since December 1999 - political, economic, financial events , sorted in descending order by date
  • Summary: Two tables of overall action recommendations against US$ and SDR optimised for 12 months or longer - five columns showing Buy/Add/Hold/Trim/Sell opinions based in turn on value, trend, sentiment and combined overall action strategies together with overall direction of change since previous month, sorted alphabetically by country and region
  • Trading Summary: Two tables as Summary but optimised for 3-6 months - five columns showing recommendations by modified trend and sentiment strategies, overall action strategies together with overall direction of change since previous month and fundamental risk rating included for information only
  • Trends: Two tables of directional Buy/Sell opinions against US$ and SDR optimised for 12 month performance - seven columns showing opinions based on revision to consensus economic forecasts, chart analysis, seasonal trading patterns and overall direction together with Up/Down direction of change over previous month for three individual strategies, sorted alphabetically by country and region
  • Econometric Models: Two tables of our own econometric forecasts of percentage changes in total return against US$ and SDR, derived from consensus economic forecasts - four columns showing forecasts for FY1 and FY2 together with Up/Down direction of change, sorted alphabetically by country and region
  • Long Term Forecasts: As Econometric Forecasts but predictions five years ahead - six  columns showing FY1, FY2, FY3, FY4, FY5 and five year compound annual growth 
  • Seasonal Trading Patterns: One table listing historic patterns for the best month in the year to buy and sell against US$ and SDR - three pairs of two columns showing Buy/Sell signals and month of expiry for the current signal, sorted alphabetically by country and region
  • Invest Sentiment: Two tables projecting performance up to a year ahead based on composite indicators of investor sentiment since 1999 against US$ and SDR - 12 columns of +/- cumulative direction indicators together with percentage change forecast a year ahead and Buy/Add/Hold/Trim/Sell recommendations, sorted alphabetically by country and region
  • Valuation Summary (Fair Value Line) : One table comparing valuation levels for foreign currency, bond and stock markets - three columns showing diversion from mean since 1965, sorted in descending order by cheapest stock market at the top
  • Valuation Summary: Two tables of recommendations based on valuation strategies - Seven columns showing Buy/Add/Hold/Trim/Sell recommendations based on Comparative Wage Costs, Consumer Prices and Current Account, Relative Interest Rates, Bond Yield and earnings Yield together with an overall recommendation for all valuation strategies, sorted alphabetically by countries within regions
  • Valuation (Real Effective Exchange Rate): One table of over/under-valuation based on real effective exchange rates - two columns showing percentage deviation from mean based on comparative unit labour costs and inflation since 1965
  • Valuation (Real Yield Differential): One table of over/under-valuation based on real bond yield differentials between a country and its trading partners after inflation - two columns showing current ratio and compared to historical average since 1965
  • Valuation (Real Interest Rate Differential): One table of over/under-valuation based on real interest rate differentials between a country and its trading partners after inflation - two columns showing current ratio and compared to historical average since 1965
  • Valuation (Real Equity Earnings Yield): One table of over/under-valuation based on comparative attractiveness of stock market, based on real earning yields - two columns showing current ratio and compared to historical average since 1965
  • Valuation (Current Account / GDP): One table of over/under-valuation based on comparative import/export performance - two columns showing current year forecast balance of payments deficit/surplus as a proportion of gross domestic product and compared to historic average since 1965
  • Next National Elections: One table showing the main political even on the horizon for all markets - Four columns showing country, election, current government and Left/Right orientation, sorted by due date in ascending order up to five year ahead
  • Exchange Traded Funds: One table providing recommendations on exchange traded funds, including US closed-ended funds and UK investment trusts based on their mandates rather than their managers - 12 columns listing code, fund name, investment mandate, best proxy, liquidity rating, recommendations against US$ and SDR, name of sponsor, correlation to US$, monthly volatility and type, sorted alphabetically by name, listing and type