Bonds RouteMap: Summary Tables

Ranking tables of our Best Guesses for investing in 50 developed and emerging long-term government bond markets

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Use this RouteMap if you manage international bond funds, or want to invest in them

 

Summary Tables

 

 

 

Bonds RouteMap

  • Performance: Two tables of Total US$ Returns recorded for the last calendar month and year to date in foreign currency, bond and stock markets - Three columns showing percentage changes respectively for 3-Month T-Bills, 10-Year Government Bonds and Stock Market indices all converted into US$, sorted in descending order by best stock market 
  • Recent Significant Events: One table of major news headlines for every bond market in every month since December 1999 - political, economic, financial events , sorted in descending order by date
  • Summary: Three tables of overall action recommendations for local currency investors, US$ investors and relative performance optimised for 12 months or longer - five columns showing Buy/Add/Hold/Trim/Sell opinions based respectively on value, trend, sentiment and combined overall action strategies together with overall direction of change since previous month, sorted alphabetically by country and region
  • Trading Summary: Three tables as Summary but optimised for 3-6 months - five columns showing recommendations by modified trend and sentiment strategies, overall action strategies together with overall direction of change since previous month and fundamental risk rating included for information only
  • Trends: Three tables of directional Buy/Sell opinions for local currency investors, US$ investors and relative performance optimised for 12 month performance - seven columns showing opinions based on revision to consensus forecasts, chart analysis, seasonal trading patterns and overall direction together with Up/Down direction of change over previous month for three individual strategies, sorted alphabetically by country and region
  • Econometric Models: Three tables of our own econometric forecasts of percentage changes in total return for local currency investors, US$ investors and relative performance, derived from consensus economic forecasts - four columns showing forecasts for FY1 and FY2 together with Up/Down direction of change, sorted alphabetically by country and region
  • Long Term Forecasts: As Econometric Forecasts but predictions five years ahead - six  columns showing FY1, FY2, FY3, FY4, FY5 and five year compound annual growth 
  • Seasonal Trading Patterns: One table listing historic patterns for the best month in the year to buy and sell for local currency investors, US$ investors and relative performance - three pairs of two columns showing Buy/Sell signals and month of expiry for current signal, sorted alphabetically by country and region
  • Invest Sentiment: Three tables projecting performance up to a year ahead based on composite indicators of investor sentiment since 1999 for local currency investors, US$ investors and relative performance - 12 columns of +/- cumulative direction indicators together with percentage change forecast a year ahead and Buy/Add/Hold/Trim/Sell recommendations, sorted alphabetically by country and region
  • Valuation Summary (Fair Value Line) : One table comparing valuation levels for foreign currency, bond and stock markets - three columns showing deviation from mean since 1965, sorted in descending order by cheapest stock market at the top
  • Valuation Summary: Three tables of recommendations based on valuation strategies - Four columns showing Buy/Add/Hold/Trim/Sell recommendations based on Real Yield, Yield/Interest Rate, Yield/PE Ratios individually and combined for local and US$ investors and relative performance, sorted alphabetically by country and region
  • Valuation (Real Yield after Inflation): One table displaying real value - two columns of current bond yield after inflation and divergence from average since 1965, sorted by over/under-valuation compared with cheapest at the top
  • Valuation (Yield / Interest Rate): One table comparing the attractiveness of bonds versus cash - Two columns of current yield differential and divergence from average since 1965, sorted by over/under-valuation compared with cheapest at the top
  • Valuation (Yield / PE Ratio): One table comparing the attractiveness of bonds versus shares - Two columns of current yield differential and divergence from average since 1965, sorted by over/under-valuation compared with cheapest at the top
  • Next National Elections: One table showing the main political even on the horizon for all markets - Four columns showing country, election, current government and Left/Right orientation, sorted by due date in ascending order up to five year ahead
  • Exchange Traded Funds: One table providing recommendations on exchange traded funds, including US closed-ended funds and UK investment trusts based on their mandates rather than their managers - 12 columns listing code, fund name, investment mandate, best proxy, liquidity rating, recommendations for absolute return in US$ relative performance, name of sponsor, quality rating and average duration of portfolio, sorted alphabetically by name, listing and type