Shares RouteMap: Summary Tables

Ranking tables of our Best Guesses for investing in developed and emerging 51 stock markets

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Summary Tables

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Shares RouteMap

  • Performance: Two tables of Total US$ Returns recorded for the last calendar month and year to date in foreign currency, bond and stock markets - Three columns showing percentage changes respectively for 3-Month T-Bills, 10-Year Government Bonds and Stock Market indices all converted into US$, sorted in descending order by best stock market 
  • Recent Significant Events: One table of major news headlines for every stock market in every month since December 1999 - political, economic, financial events , sorted in descending order by date
  • Summary: Three tables of overall action recommendations for local currency investors, US$ investors and relative performance optimised for 12 months or longer - five columns showing Buy/Add/Hold/Trim/Sell opinions based respectively on value, trend, sentiment and combined overall action strategies together with overall direction of change since previous month, sorted alphabetically by country and region
  • Trading Summary: Three tables as Summary but optimised for 3-6 months - five columns showing recommendations by modified trend and sentiment strategies, overall action strategies together with overall direction of change since previous month and fundamental risk rating included for information only
  • Trends: Three tables of directional Buy/Sell opinions for local currency investors, US$ investors and relative performance optimised for 12 month performance - nine columns showing opinions based on revision to consensus economic forecasts, liquidity trends, chart analysis, seasonal trading patterns and overall direction together with Up/Down direction of change over previous month for four individual strategies, sorted alphabetically by country and region
  • EPS Forecasts: Three tables of our own top-down earnings per share forecasts estimating percentage changes for local currency investors, US$ investors and relative performance, derived from consensus economic forecasts - four columns showing forecasts for FY1 and FY2 together with Up/Down direction of change, sorted alphabetically by country and region
  • Long Term Forecasts: As EPS Forecasts but estimates five years ahead - six columns showing FY1, FY2, FY3, FY4, FY5 and five year compound annual growth 
  • Seasonal Trading Patterns: One table listing historic patterns for the best month in the year to buy and sell for local currency investors, US$ investors and relative performance - three pairs of two columns showing Buy/Sell signals and month of expiry for the current signal, sorted alphabetically by country and region
  • Invest Sentiment: Three tables projecting performance up to a year ahead based on composite indicators of investor sentiment since 1999 for local currency investors, US$ investors and relative performance - 12 columns of +/- cumulative direction indicators together with percentage change forecast a year ahead and Buy/Add/Hold/Trim/Sell recommendations, sorted alphabetically by country and region
  • Valuation Summary (Fair Value Line) : One table comparing valuation levels for foreign currency, bond and stock markets - three columns showing deviation from mean since 1965, sorted in descending order by cheapest stock market at the top
  • Valuation Summary: Three tables of recommendations based on valuation strategies - Four columns showing Buy/Add/Hold/Trim/Sell recommendations based on Real Yield, Yield/Interest Rate, Yield/PE Ratios individually and combined for local and US$ investors and relative performance, sorted alphabetically by country and region
  • Valuation (Cyclically-Adjusted PE/Bond Yield): One table calculating the attractiveness of shares compared to bonds - two columns showing the current ratio and compared to its own past since 1965, sorted by past comparison with cheapest at the top
  • Valuation (Cyclically-Adjusted PE/Cash Yield): One table calculating the attractiveness of shares compared to cash - two columns showing the current ratio and compared to its own past since 1965, sorted by past comparison with cheapest at the top
  • Valuation (Market Capitalisation/GDP): One table calculating the attractiveness of shares for corporate investors - two columns showing the current ratio of market capitalisation / GDP and compared to its own past since 1965, sorted by past comparison with cheapest at the top
  • Valuation (Cyclically-Adjusted Real PE): One table calculating the attractiveness of shares in real terms - two columns showing the current ratio both cyclically- and inflation-adjusted and compared to its own past since 1965, sorted by past comparison with cheapest at the top
  • Valuation (Forecast EPS & Bond Yield): One table calculating the extent of over/under-valuation compared to fair value based on current short and long-term fixed interest securities and our forecast of next year's EPS - two columns showing the current ratio and compared to its own past since 1965, sorted by past short-term rate comparison with cheapest at the top
  • Valuation (Current Account / GDP): One table of over/under-valuation based on comparative import/export performance - two columns showing current year forecast balance of payments deficit/surplus as a proportion of gross domestic product and compared to historic average since 1965
  • Valuation (Overall Average): One table of average over/under-valuation based on the tables above - two columns showing the current average ratio compared to a global average and compared to its own past since 1965, sorted with cheapest compared to its past at the top
  • Next National Elections: One table showing the main political even on the horizon for all markets - Four columns showing country, election, current government and Left/Right orientation, sorted by due date in ascending order up to five year ahead
  • Exchange Traded Funds: Five tables providing recommendations on exchange traded funds, including US closed-ended funds and UK investment trusts based on their mandates rather than their managers - 12 columns listing code, fund name, investment mandate, best proxy, liquidity rating, recommendations for absolute return in US$ relative performance, name of sponsor, correlation to global average and monthly volatility, sorted alphabetically by name, listing and type