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Investment sentiment has been outstanding in giving a year's warning, expet during the 2008 financial crisis.

Visitor: Do you analyse anything that doesn't rely on forecasts?

RouteMaster: Yes. We have experimented extensively with investor sentiment, so we developed Buy / Sell signals based on composite indicators of these.

This is a contrarian strategy, based on our library of some 500 indicators around the world. These analyse which types of investor are usually successful, and which types are not, in order to see what predictive value that may have a year into the future. These individual indicators are combined into a composite indicator for each market designed to predict market levels a year later.  That is to say at any point in the past, the index shows at what level the market actually stood, while the indicator shows where it was then expected to be a year earlier.

This strategy was highly effective in practice until the 2008 financial crisis, when many normally-successful types of investor because forced sellers.